Developing and Validating a Model of Left-Turn Crashes to Support Safer Design and Operations

Details

• Creators:
  Davis, Gary A. ; Gao, Jingru ; Mudgal, Abhisek
• Corporate Creators:
  University of Minnesota. Dept. of Civil, Environmental, and Geo-Engineering ; Texas Transportation Institute
• Corporate Contributors:
  Roadway Safety Institute ; United States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Crash reconstruction
  • Event data recorders
  • Gap acceptance
  • Left turns
  • Markov chains
  • Monte Carlo method
  • Multiple vehicle crashes
  • Simulation
• Publication/ Report Number:
  CTS 18-18
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  University of Minnesota. Center for Transportation Studies
• Abstract:
  This report documents work done to advance the state of art in crash simulation. This includes: (1) A field study to collect data on drivers’ left-turn gap acceptance and turning times, and development of statistical models that can be incorporated into a crash simulation model; (2) The use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo computational tools to quantify uncertainty in planar impact reconstruction of two-vehicle crashes; (3) A method for combing the results from planar impact reconstruction with event data recorder pre-crash data to estimate descriptive features of actual left-turn crashes. This is applied to several left-turn crashes from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s NASS/CDS database; (4) A left-turn crash simulation model incorporating the above results. Initial model checking is performed using estimates from the reconstructed NASS/CDS cases as well as results from a previous study on left-turn crash risk. Also described is a method for simulating crash modification effects without having to first simulate crashes as rare outcomes in very large numbers of gap acceptances.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  DTRT13-G-UTC35
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/55735/dot_55735_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.95 MB]
• Collection(s):
  University Transportation Centers ; US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:5096e14b46efdae8ff12f101110e34ce120baeea16c22a8d9d8db621638e0cfc