Stochastic Analysis of Future Vehicle Populations

Details

• Creators:
  Golomb, D. Henry ; Bunch, Howard M.
• Corporate Contributors:
  University of Michigan. Highway Safety Research Institute ; United States. Department of Transportation. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ; John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Stochastic programming
  • Future
  • Sales
  • Automobiles
  • Fuel consumption
  • Energy conservation
  • Combustion efficiency
  • Climate change
  • Global warming
  • Greenhouse gases
  More +
• Publication/ Report Number:
  HS-803-656 ; UM-HSRI-78-15 ; DOT-TSC-NHTSA-79-20
• Resource Type:
  Research Paper
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Final report April 19, 1977 to April 15, 1978
• Corporate Publisher:
  United States. Department of Transportation. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Abstract:
  The purpose of this study was to build a stochastic model of future vehicle populations. Such a model can be used to investigate the uncertainties inherent in Future Vehicle Populations. The model, which is called the Future Automobile Population Stochastic Model (FAPS Model), consists of two major components: (1) Model of New Car Sales. The model of new car sales is the model of automobile demand developed by Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, revised to incorporate the new vehicle survival model that was developed. (2) A procedure for Specifying Future Planned and Unplanned Events. This procedure, which specifies the Future Values of exogenous parameters of the model, incorporates the uncertainty of these parameters into the model. A computer program of the FPAS Model was written and is documented in the report.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  DOT-TS-13729
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8553/dot_8553_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.32 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Transportation Resilience and Vulnerability Collection ; Volpe Center
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:8fe085063d1ad0d8e29f7e488df7f9c0b8315d22f1668cb06831cf02e0cb153f