United States Department of Transportation
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The Impact of the COVID-19 Recovery on California Transportation Revenue: A Scenario Analysis through 2040
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2020-12-01
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:The COVID-19 public health emergency has affected every aspect of life in California, reducing social and economic activity. Less activity translates to less travel, and less travel leads to less revenue generated from taxes on motor fuels. As California emerges from the COVID-19 crisis and returns to more normal levels of activity, the state must plan transportation system operations and maintenance in the context of deep uncertainty regarding future revenue. To help decision makers navigate that uncertainty, the authors used spreadsheet models to estimate the impacts of different economic recovery scenarios from the COVID-19 pandemic on state-generated transportation revenue. Because it is not possible to anticipate future economic conditions, travel volumes, and vehicle markets with certainty, the authors created six potential economic recovery scenarios and projected future transportation revenue in California through 2040 under each.
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[PDF-2.67 MB]
