Impact of high efficiency vehicles on future fuel tax revenues in Utah.

Details

• Creators:
  Chamberlin, Robert ; Talbot, Eric ; Lin, Haiyun
• Corporate Creators:
  RSG, Inc.
• Corporate Contributors:
  United States. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Electric vehicles
  • Fuel taxes
  • Revenues
  • Fuel consumption
  • Alternate fuels
• Publication/ Report Number:
  UT- 15.06
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  Utah
• Corporate Publisher:
  Utah. Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  The Utah Department of Transportation Research Division has analyzed the potential impact of ; high-efficiency motor vehicles on future State of Utah motor fuel tax revenues used to construct and maintain the ; highway network. High-efficiency motor vehicle use (including electric, hybrid, CNG, and other alternative fuel ; vehicles) is on the rise in Utah. New light duty vehicles with standard gasoline-powered engines are more efficient ; to comply with adopted Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. As the motor vehicle fleet in Utah ; becomes more efficient, using less gasoline per mile traveled, there is a potential for a significant slowing in the ; growth, or a reduction, of revenue from this source. ; This research project developed three scenarios for understanding how a variety of factors could combine ; to affect future fuel tax revenues in Utah. The time horizon of the analysis is 2040. To estimate the effect of high ; efficiency vehicles on future fuel tax revenues, the FHWA Energy and Emissions Reduction Policy (EERPAT) ; Analysis Tool was used. EERPAT was parameterized and calibrated to 2010 conditions in Utah, and used to ; estimate future transportation conditions such as VMT, fleet mix, fuel choice, fuel consumption, and fuel tax ; revenues. ; Future demographic, travel, and income projections, obtained from State of Utah data sources, were used as ; inputs to the analysis. Key driving assumptions include: 1) future fuel efficiency of heavy duty vehicles; 2) future ; market penetration of CNG for heavy duty vehicles; 3) future market penetration of alternative drive train vehicles – ; battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid – into the light duty vehicle fleet; and, 4) future motor fuel tax rates. ; The analysis shows that, even with a growing population and increasing VMT, total fuel tax revenues are ; projected to decline by 29% in constant 2015 dollars when compared to 2010. Assuming very modest penetration of ; alternative drive train vehicles (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric) in the Base Case (<1%/year), total revenues ; decline due to higher efficiency of light duty vehicles, high penetration of CNG in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet, and ; erosion of the purchasing power of the gasoline tax (0.245 in 2015$) due to inflation. ; Assuming moderate to aggressive penetration of alternative drive train vehicles in the future, overall fuel ; tax revenues decline even further. A moderate penetration of alternative drive train vehicles would result in a further ; 19% reduction from the 2040 Base Case (or, a 42% decline in constant dollar fuel tax revenues compared to 2010); ; an aggressive penetration of alternative drive train vehicles would result in a further 25% reduction in fuel tax ; revenues from the 2040 Base Case (or, a 47% decline in constant dollar fuel tax revenues compared to 2010).
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• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  15-8575
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/29387/dot_29387_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 716.44 KB]
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:dbd7b06a73c1d567d33d83b8f225205f21525c01a0141ae52bf7dff3e98b61bef7463df1f6b265760401946ecb9c8724901ba4005a196f8a5f7c64a54b5cb584