Details:

Creators:
Chamberlin, Robert ; Talbot, Eric ; Lin, Haiyun
Chamberlin, Robert ; Talbot, Eric ; Lin, Haiyun Less -
Corporate Creators:
RSG, Inc.
Corporate Contributors:
United States. Federal Highway Administration
Subject/TRT Terms:
[+]
Alternate Fuels Electric Vehicles Fuel Consumption Fuel Taxes Revenues
Publication/ Report Number:
UT- 15.06
Resource Type:
Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:
Utah
Corporate Publisher:
Utah. Dept. of Transportation
Abstract:
The Utah Department of Transportation Research Division has analyzed the potential impact of

high-efficiency motor vehicles on future State of Utah motor fuel tax revenues used to construct and maintain the

highway network. High-efficiency motor vehicle use (including electric, hybrid, CNG, and other alternative fuel

vehicles) is on the rise in Utah. New light duty vehicles with standard gasoline-powered engines are more efficient

to comply with adopted Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. As the motor vehicle fleet in Utah

becomes more efficient, using less gasoline per mile traveled, there is a potential for a significant slowing in the

growth, or a reduction, of revenue from this source.

This research project developed three scenarios for understanding how a variety of factors could combine

to affect future fuel tax revenues in Utah. The time horizon of the analysis is 2040. To estimate the effect of high

efficiency vehicles on future fuel tax revenues, the FHWA Energy and Emissions Reduction Policy (EERPAT)

Analysis Tool was used. EERPAT was parameterized and calibrated to 2010 conditions in Utah, and used to

estimate future transportation conditions such as VMT, fleet mix, fuel choice, fuel consumption, and fuel tax

revenues.

Future demographic, travel, and income projections, obtained from State of Utah data sources, were used as

inputs to the analysis. Key driving assumptions include: 1) future fuel efficiency of heavy duty vehicles; 2) future

market penetration of CNG for heavy duty vehicles; 3) future market penetration of alternative drive train vehicles –

battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid – into the light duty vehicle fleet; and, 4) future motor fuel tax rates.

The analysis shows that, even with a growing population and increasing VMT, total fuel tax revenues are

projected to decline by 29% in constant 2015 dollars when compared to 2010. Assuming very modest penetration of

alternative drive train vehicles (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric) in the Base Case (<1%/year), total revenues

decline due to higher efficiency of light duty vehicles, high penetration of CNG in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet, and

erosion of the purchasing power of the gasoline tax (0.245 in 2015$) due to inflation.

Assuming moderate to aggressive penetration of alternative drive train vehicles in the future, overall fuel

tax revenues decline even further. A moderate penetration of alternative drive train vehicles would result in a further

19% reduction from the 2040 Base Case (or, a 42% decline in constant dollar fuel tax revenues compared to 2010);

an aggressive penetration of alternative drive train vehicles would result in a further 25% reduction in fuel tax

revenues from the 2040 Base Case (or, a 47% decline in constant dollar fuel tax revenues compared to 2010).


Format:
PDF
Funding:
15-8575
Collection(s):
US Transportation Collection
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:784b9c1fffbf95b839688f6fe949d749ebd1f4f8529d6629b104ea24e799bf09
Download URL:
https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/29387/dot_29387_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

• No Additional Files

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