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Congestion and Emission Impacts of Switching From In-Person to Online Grocery Delivery: A Seattle Case Study
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2022-01-01
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[PDF-867.39 KB]
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Edition:Final Research Report
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Abstract:The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented growth in the use of online grocery services, influencing mobility choices as well as a range of decisions (e.g., where, how, and how much to shop). Before the pandemic, only 20% of customers in the US had ever bought their groceries online. But in June 2020, three months into the pandemic, nearly 80% of shoppers had ordered groceries online (Morgan, 2020). The same source also reports a sixfold increase in the online grocery shopping market share- from $1.2 billion in August 2019 (before the pandemic) to $7.2 billion in June 2020 (during the pandemic). The reasons for this increase might be explained by customer’s willingness to pay for online delivery services, and a desire to reduce exposure to risk of contracting COVID. Nevertheless, the COVID pandemic has been a catalyzer for online grocery, and this shift in demand for e-groceries is expected to continue to grow after the pandemic subsides (McKinsey & Company, 2022). With an increase in the use of online grocery shopping services comes changes in mobility patterns. Instead of an individual driving to the store, a delivery vehicle may travel to several homes per tour to deliver groceries. In addition, delivery can sometimes displace, and other times add to in-person grocery shopping trips. The impacts of such trends on the mobility ecosystem are uncertain. On one hand, this trend could potentially reduce the number cars on the road when delivery routes serve multiple homes, improving congestion and reducing emissions. On the other hand, this trend could lead to system wide inefficiencies, exacerbating congestion and emissions within a region. This study quantifies the impacts grocery delivery has on emissions, energy and congestion, for a wide range of scenarios.
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