Transportation revenue impacts from a changing light-duty vehicle fleet.
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2013-09-01
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Abstract:Advanced fuel economies in both traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) and ; electric vehicles (EVs) have a strong influence on transportation revenue by reducing fuel ; consumption per vehicle and ultimately drawing down the amount of fuel tax revenue received. It is ; expected that more ICE vehicles with advanced fuel economies and EVs, especially gasoline hybrid ; EVs, will enter the roadway in coming years, and fuel tax revenues and the Highway Trust Fund will ; increasingly become more affected. This study estimates the impact that increased sales of advanced ; ICEs and EVs will have on future fuel tax revenues by drawing on industry estimates of future EV ; and ICE market shares and anticipates future fleet mix and fuel economy for both vehicle ; technologies. An estimation process overview is provided and assumptions are described. ; Fuel tax revenue amounts that would be expected from future light vehicle fleets with ; increased shares of EVs are compared to equivalently sized fleets composed of all ICEs, and future ; fleet mixes are estimated. Results show that as more EVs enter the light vehicle fleet, greater ; revenue losses are expected, and total losses from years 2011 through 2050 depend on fleet ; composition and fuel economy of both vehicle types. It is found that the amount of fuel taxes paid by ; ICE drivers each year remain greater than fuel taxes paid by EV drivers even with advances in the ; average ICE vehicle fuel economy. Finally, a review of alternative revenue generation methods that ; states are employing to cover fuel tax revenue gaps is given.
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Main Document Checksum:urn:sha-512:d800028d9af01d8ee904f36c10e92bc34d5e82c4e3d8fac49837ea480f916d2ac954880843187e2118bd3f79432815e453d8af776cdb934387ce7763ce0b6520