The Impacts of Climate Change on Scour-Vulnerable Bridges: An Assessment Based on HYRISK

Details

• Creators:
  Khelifa, Alexandre ; Garrow, Laurie A. ; Higgins, Matthew J. ; Meyer, Michael D.
• Corporate Creators:
  Georgia Institute of Technology
• Corporate Contributors:
  United States. Department of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Bridges
  • Precipitation (Meteorology)
  • Scour
  • Risk assessment
  • Climate change
  • Asset management
  • Scour at bridges
  • Climatic changes
  • Risk assessment
• Resource Type:
  Research Paper
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  Georgia Transportation Institute University Transportation Center
• Abstract:
  More than 20% of the bridges in the U.S. were built more than 50 years ago, at a time in which intense precipitation events were much less common. However, very little work has been done on the use of scour risk-assessment models to assess how climate change increases bridge failure probabilities. This paper develops a risk-assessment framework based on HYRISK, a model developed to assess the probability of a bridge failure due to scour, and illustrates one way in which current engineering risk-assessment models can be used to quantify the additional risks and expected economic losses associated with a changing climate. Application of this framework to all bridges in the U.S. that carry vehicular traffic over water finds that economic losses due to climate change factors will increase by at least 15% over current losses and that the expected number of annual bridge failures in the U.S. will increase by at least 10% over current failures. Climate-based risk measures, such as those developed as part of this study, could be included in asset management systems to help State DOT's prioritize maintenance, operation, and replacement schedules.
• Format:
  PDF
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/25770/dot_25770_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 662.17 KB]
• Collection(s):
  Transportation Resilience and Vulnerability Collection ; University Transportation Centers
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:a376470e7fc1d7340064a0f42eaf1010fa36e49f5afc28c3be69be824ee7c67e3fb80116546f8f5c76b15431694667e80fa26ca4add63af97ea9078979745f62