United States Department of Transportation
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Statistical Analysis and Time Series Modeling of Air Traffic Operations Data From Flight Service Stations and Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities : Two Case Studies
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1981-10-01
[PDF-2.30 MB]
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Abstract:Two statistical procedures have been developed to estimate hourly or daily aircraft counts. These counts can then be transformed into estimates of instantaneous air counts. The first procedure estimates the stable (deterministic) mean level of hourly or day of the week patterns by statistical models. The second procedure estimates both deterministic and stochastic periodic (hourly or day of the week) patterns by stochastic time series models. Both statistical procedures have been used to analyze traffic at the St. Louis TRACON and Los Angeles Flight Service Station. This report analyzes hourly variations in operations at the St. Louis TRACON, for each day in four representative months in 1979. It also analyzes daily variations for three months in 1979 of flight plan activity at the Los Angeles FSS. The results of these analyses are given preliminary interpretations, and are available for possible application to other facilities. They are also available for other applications, such as estimation of instantaneous air counts in hubs.
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Content Notes:Introduction, Estimation of hourly and day of the week patterns for sampled air traffic data, Statistical time series models for sampled air traffic operations data, Summary and conclusions, References
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