Methods for forecasting freight in uncertainty : time series analysis of multiple factors.

Details

• Creators:
  Farrington, Phillip A.
• Corporate Creators:
  University of Alabama in Huntsville
• Corporate Contributors:
  Alabama. Department of Transportation
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Forecasting Freight And Freightage--Forecasting--Mathematical Models Freight And Passenger Traffic Time-series Analysis Time Series Analysis
• Publication/ Report Number:
  930-768
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  Alabama
• Edition:
  Final report; Jan. 31, 2011.
• Corporate Publisher:
  University of Alabama
• Abstract:
  The main goal of this research was to analyze and more accurately model freight movement in
  
  Alabama. Ultimately, the goal of this project was to provide an overall approach to the
  
  integration of accurate freight models into transportation plans and models in Alabama.
  
  The first step in the process was to identify the dependent variable and collect the data necessary
  
  to develop the models. Initially, Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) was the preferred
  
  dependent variable however, data collection revealed that the available VMT was not
  
  particularly accurate since it is derived from VMT data for all vehicles and there was no
  
  validated method for estimating the percentage of trucks in any one year. Therefore, the research
  
  team determined that annual Diesel Tax collections would be a good surrogate for Truck VMT.
  
  The Diesel Tax collections were used to estimate the Diesel Gallons Sold each year by dividing
  
  by the tax rate for that year. This variable, Diesel Gallons Sold (DGS), has the advantage that it
  
  could be used to estimate annual truck volumes based on estimate mileage performance for
  
  trucks. Thus, DGS was chosen as the dependent variable for this study.
  
  
• Format:
  PDF
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:b57aa237d07de3af7109d9403769b977d2ba8141c6b300f44b115bb1fec7538f
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/20365/dot_20365_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 511.37 KB ]