United States Department of Transportation
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Methods for forecasting freight in uncertainty : time series analysis of multiple factors.
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2011-01-31
[PDF-511.37 KB]
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Edition:Final report; Jan. 31, 2011.
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Abstract:The main goal of this research was to analyze and more accurately model freight movement in
Alabama. Ultimately, the goal of this project was to provide an overall approach to the
integration of accurate freight models into transportation plans and models in Alabama.
The first step in the process was to identify the dependent variable and collect the data necessary
to develop the models. Initially, Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) was the preferred
dependent variable however, data collection revealed that the available VMT was not
particularly accurate since it is derived from VMT data for all vehicles and there was no
validated method for estimating the percentage of trucks in any one year. Therefore, the research
team determined that annual Diesel Tax collections would be a good surrogate for Truck VMT.
The Diesel Tax collections were used to estimate the Diesel Gallons Sold each year by dividing
by the tax rate for that year. This variable, Diesel Gallons Sold (DGS), has the advantage that it
could be used to estimate annual truck volumes based on estimate mileage performance for
trucks. Thus, DGS was chosen as the dependent variable for this study.
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