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Methods for forecasting freight in uncertainty : time series analysis of multiple factors.
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    Final report; Jan. 31, 2011.
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  • Abstract:
    The main goal of this research was to analyze and more accurately model freight movement in

    Alabama. Ultimately, the goal of this project was to provide an overall approach to the

    integration of accurate freight models into transportation plans and models in Alabama.

    The first step in the process was to identify the dependent variable and collect the data necessary

    to develop the models. Initially, Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) was the preferred

    dependent variable however, data collection revealed that the available VMT was not

    particularly accurate since it is derived from VMT data for all vehicles and there was no

    validated method for estimating the percentage of trucks in any one year. Therefore, the research

    team determined that annual Diesel Tax collections would be a good surrogate for Truck VMT.

    The Diesel Tax collections were used to estimate the Diesel Gallons Sold each year by dividing

    by the tax rate for that year. This variable, Diesel Gallons Sold (DGS), has the advantage that it

    could be used to estimate annual truck volumes based on estimate mileage performance for

    trucks. Thus, DGS was chosen as the dependent variable for this study.

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