Calibration of a Past Year Travel Demand Model for Model Evaluation

Pearson, David F.; Ellis, Patricia L.; Farnsworth, Stephen P.

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Calibration of a Past Year Travel Demand Model for Model Evaluation

2002-10-01
By Pearson, David F. ; Ellis, Patricia L. ; Farnsworth, Stephen P.

File Language:

English

Details

Creators:

Pearson, David F. ; Ellis, Patricia L. ; Farnsworth, Stephen P.
Corporate Creators:

Texas A&M University. Texas Transportation Institute
Corporate Contributors:

Texas Department of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office ; United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration
Subject/TRT Terms:

Calibration Decision Making Forecasting Mathematical Models Transportation Planning Travel Behavior Travel Demand Travel Patterns Travel Surveys Validation
Publication/ Report Number:

FHWA/TX-03/4198-1,, Research Report 4198-1,, TTI: 0-4198
Resource Type:

Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:

United States
Edition:

September 2001 – August 2002
Corporate Publisher:

Texas. Department of Transportation
Abstract:

Planning decisions for transportation infrastructure are based largely on forecast travel demand. To make informed decisions, the forecast travel demand must accurately reflect the response in traveler behavior and patterns of travel to changes in the attributes of the transportation system and the people using the system. Travel demand models are one of the tools used to estimate and forecast travel demand. The objective of this project was to perform an evaluation of the ability of the current modeling process in Texas to forecast travel behavior and patterns within the context of a controlled experimental design. The project attempted to calibrate travel demand models using travel surveys conducted in the San Antonio-Bexar County area in 1969. These models would then be applied to forecast travel behavior and patterns for the years 1980 and 1990, with the results compared to observed conditions. Due to data limitations, researchers did not consider the model developed for 1970 acceptable in terms of meeting the calibration criteria that were established. This negated the application of the model to 1980 and 1990 since the results could not be interpreted with any confidence. A number of recommendations on the model information needs for retention in future model calibration/validation efforts are made. The recommendations provide the basis for examining travel demand models within controlled conditions as a routine part of the modeling process.
Format:

PDF
Funding:

0-4198
Collection(s):

US Transportation Collection
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:36770cb65fc1d26984282e1796435b76d0090114f697404541f43ee07f77b307433e7bfed5ecb6549b36285aa0a97214e3097bff877a8337938c7828de9c6caa
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/87494/dot_87494_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.30 MB ]

File Language:

English

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