Risk Assessment Tool (Associated with Cost)

Details

• Creators:
  Shrestha, K. Joseph ; Uddin, Mohammad Moin ; Paul, Pritom ; Fielden, Jacob
• Corporate Creators:
  East Tennessee State University
• Corporate Contributors:
  Tennessee. Department of Transportation ; United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Cost Allocation Cost Control Cost Estimating Project Delivery Project Management Risk Assessment Risk Management
• Publication/ Report Number:
  RES2023-02
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  Tennessee ; United States
• Edition:
  Draft Report July 2023 – June 2025
• Corporate Publisher:
  Tennessee. Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  Computing accurate cost estimates during an early phase of project development is a challenging task because of various project factors such as change in project scope, inflation, site conditions, and market conditions. This study collects and analyzes engineers’ estimates throughout the project development to quantify the changes in estimates over time. The findings were used to develop a framework and tool for Preliminary Cost Estimate Adjustment (PCEA) tool. The tool enables TDOT engineers to adjust an initial engineer’s estimate to make it more aligned with the likely final engineer’s estimate. The use of this tool showed a promising result with the reduction of errors by 37% – 55% in validation dataset. After developing the PCEA tool, TDOT identified a need to develop another tool to produce preliminary estimates using a limited set of project characteristics that are available at the early phase of project development. This led to the development of Construction Project Cost Estimation (CPCE) tool. This data-driven tool enables TDOT engineers to calculate preliminary cost estimates quickly with acceptable error rates based on AASHTO guidelines. These two tools are expected to aid TDOT engineers in increasing the accuracy of their engineers estimates, which will enable better planning of future projects based on available funding.
• Format:
  PDF
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:d3af1bbbfbb01d4f8cfa3266fba48638865c5ca7eb6254da6c19f9a1cfe4d716e6827f2aedbc1884cd1369f17ec8a35352310276de3419f499c07c7c251cfec0
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/85816/dot_85816_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.30 MB ]