Implementation of Action 6 of CSFAP Phase 3 Tracking Economic Competitiveness Part 3: Economic Impacts of Electrification of Cargo Handling Equipment at POLA/POLB
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2021-08-01
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Edition:Final report (5/17/2019-7/31/2021
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Abstract:Electrification of cargo handling equipment (CHE) is identified as one of the major strategies for reducing emissions from port operations, as part of the efforts under the San Pedro Bay Clean Air Action Plan (CAAP). In this study, we analyze the macroeconomic impacts of the electrification of CHE at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach between 2020 and 2045. A state-of-the-art macroeconometric model, the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight Plus (PI+) Model, is applied to analyze both the aggregate impacts on the California state economy and the implications to the transportation sector. The primary input data to the REMI Model are the estimates of the direct costs and savings associated with the transition to electric CHE. The results indicate that increased equipment and infrastructure cost of transition to zero-emission (ZE) CHE can result in losses of jobs and economic output. Moreover, gross output in the port-related sector and aggregate transportation sector in CA decreases, while gross output in these sectors in rest of U.S. increases, indicating some port related business can be shifted out of California. However, the impacts remain small in percentage terms because of the size of the state economy. We also perform several sensitivity analyses to examine how the macroeconomic impact results would change in response to changes in key assumptions, including funding sources, cost pass-through potentials, equipment costs, battery technology development, among others.
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