United States Department of Transportation
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Understanding the Impact of TNC Pricing Strategies on the Prospect of Transit Agency-TNC Partnerships
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2023-03-01
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[PDF-2.39 MB]
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:Transportation network company (TNC) trip prices have fluctuated significantly higher than they were two years ago, causing concerns about existing and planned partnerships between public transit agencies and private mobility service providers. This project explored three scenarios of future TNC price changes: (1) price trend extension based on forecasting models, (2) price increases in response to local policy changes, and (3) TNC/taxi price convergence due to increased competition. We then assessed the impacts of the price changes from each scenario on the prospect of transit agency-TNC partnerships, using a planned same-day-service (SDS) paratransit pilot project in the Seattle region as a case study. For the first scenario, we employed two time-series models, namely ARIMA and PROPHET, to forecast price changes within the next three years (October 2022- October 2025) based on publicly available TNC trip data from Chicago. The results showed that TNCs’ daily average price would reach up to $3.23 per mile, increasing by 40 percent from 2019 average rates. For the second scenario, we tracked significant policies that directly affected TNC prices in Seattle and incorporated reported price increases.
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