United States Department of Transportation
i
Estimated Contribution of Peak-Hours Non-Commercial Vehicle Traffic to Fatality Rates [Traffic Safety Facts]
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2022-08-01
[PDF-241.70 KB]
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Edition:Traffic Safety Notes
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Abstract:This Traffic Safety Facts Research Note explores the relationship between the decline in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the increased fatality rate observed for 2020. It hypothesizes that the fatality rate relative to previous years is due in part to a decrease in peak-hours (i.e. 6–9 a.m., 3–6 p.m.) non-commercial vehicle traffic – that is, a decrease in commuting. To draw comparisons with 2020 the author use the most recent National Household Travel Survey, Fatality Analysis Reporting System, and FHWA VMT data to estimate separate peak and non-peak, non-commercial vehicle fatality rates for 2017. The estimated peak-hours non-commercial vehicle fatality rate for 2017 was .5 per 100m VMT, while the non-peak hours non-commercial fatality rate was 1.27 per 100m VMT. Excluding peak-hours non-commercial vehicle traffic, 2017 had an overall fatality rate of 1.48 per 100m VMT. The fatality rate for 2020 was 1.34 per 100m VMT. The author therefore conclude that decreased peak-hours non-commercial vehicle traffic associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, stay-at-home orders, and increases in remote working contributed to 2020’s increased fatality rate relative to previous years.
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