Particle Dynamics Model for Hurricane Evacuation and Fuel Shortage: Model Based Policy Analysis

Details

• Creators:
  Namilae, Sirish ; Liu, Dahai
• Corporate Creators:
  Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility, North Carolina A&T State University ; North Carolina A&T State University. Transportation Institute
• Corporate Contributors:
  United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program ; United States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Evacuation
  • Hurricanes
  • Motor fuels
  • Policy analysis
  • Refueling
  • Service stations
  • Shortages
  • Simulation
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Final Report: March 2018 to June 2019
• Corporate Publisher:
  Center for Advanced Transportation Mobility, North Carolina A&T State University
• Abstract:
  The purpose of this study is to examine the various factors that affect fuel shortage during hurricane evacuation and develop strategies to mitigate it. Fuel Shortage during hurricane Irma is modelled as contagion. The authors use the data accumulated by Gasbuddy, a free crowd sourced data application, and employ parameter identification technique to optimally estimate various characteristics exhibited by a contagion. The authors then develop a method to deterministically reproduce the real-life data using differential equations to apply optimal control theory. Using this approach, the authors are able to develop a time optimal refueling strategy for empty fuel stations that help reduces fuel shortage with resource scarcity as a constraint. The authors find that there is significant relationship of the contagion like behavior of different areas and cities with their distance from hurricane landfall, population and number of operating automobiles in these places. This is evident with Miami/Ft Lauderdale area having an R0 value of 5.54 compared to Orlando, with a R0 value of 1.93.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  69A3551747125 ; Sub contract: 270128E
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/55874/dot_55874_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.08 MB]
• Collection(s):
  University Transportation Centers ; US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:a2a0be8b011d6b63caa468c0ef067116163dc52ca2cca17eb12f737fb6fa39e2d1258c6419971c56efd94120eac26523fe21ebe942a4f062c7e50ec4136851cd