United States Department of Transportation
i
Particle Dynamics Model for Hurricane Evacuation and Fuel Shortage: Model Based Policy Analysis
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2019-06-01
[PDF-2.08 MB]
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Edition:Final Report: March 2018 to June 2019
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Abstract:The purpose of this study is to examine the various factors that affect fuel shortage during hurricane evacuation and develop strategies to mitigate it. Fuel Shortage during hurricane Irma is modelled as contagion. The authors use the data accumulated by Gasbuddy, a free crowd sourced data application, and employ parameter identification technique to optimally estimate various characteristics exhibited by a contagion. The authors then develop a method to deterministically reproduce the real-life data using differential equations to apply optimal control theory. Using this approach, the authors are able to develop a time optimal refueling strategy for empty fuel stations that help reduces fuel shortage with resource scarcity as a constraint. The authors find that there is significant relationship of the contagion like behavior of different areas and cities with their distance from hurricane landfall, population and number of operating automobiles in these places. This is evident with Miami/Ft Lauderdale area having an R0 value of 5.54 compared to Orlando, with a R0 value of 1.93.
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