United States Department of Transportation
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Automated Vehicle Impacts on the Transportation System: Using System Dynamics to Assess Regional Impacts
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2021-03-31
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[PDF-924.08 KB]
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Edition:Final report; Mar 2020- Mar 2021
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Abstract:Many of today’s transportation planning tools break down under conditions of deep uncertainty. One example of such an uncertainty is how and when automated vehicles might be adopted in the surface transportation system, their performance capabilities, and user response. System dynamics (SD) techniques focus on causal relationships, and are ideal for gaining insight into the impacts of large changes in the transportation system. In 2020, the Volpe Center worked with two groups of public-sector organizations, including several Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO) and one State Department of Transportation (DOT), to see how SD techniques may be applied to problems of interest to them. Outputs of this effort included causal-loop diagrams (CLDs) and the resulting insights. The MPO partners found the CLDs useful as a discussion tool, to bring planners and modelers together. The SD models also helped to reveal data and modeling gaps in current travel demand models.
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