United States Department of Transportation
i
System Dynamics Perspective for Automated Vehicle Impact Assessment
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2020-07-31
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[PDF-1.56 MB]
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Edition:Final report; July 2018 - May 2020
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Abstract:System dynamics (SD) allows modelers and planners to take simple causal interactions within a complex system and build a model that can demonstrate not-so-evident dynamic behavior. It is a useful addition to the strategic modeling toolbox. This report presents a plan to use system dynamics to model the impacts of automated vehicle adoption. It identifies, at a high level, the causal factors and institutional relationships that would influence adoption of a transportation mode. Two models of mobility-on-demand services are presented, using existing modes as proxies. In the first, passengers would request an automated vehicle (AV) in a similar manner as one might order a ride with a transportation network company (TNC) today. The second is that of a dockless bikeshare service, where the system operator owns the fleet of vehicles, and is concerned with their utilization. The SD modeling identified four important building blocks for the analysis of a transportation mode: (1) the reinforcing cycle of technology adoption, where consumers adopt a new product, via word-of-mouth and other influencing factors, (2) business models of providing a financially sustainable transportation service, (3) reinforcing effects of services and users, where greater usage of a service justifies adding more service and/or higher quality service, and (4) balancing effects of congestion.
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