A Prototype System for Real-Time Incident Likelihood Prediction
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A Prototype System for Real-Time Incident Likelihood Prediction

Filetype[PDF-356.08 KB]


English
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  • Alternative Title:
    IDEA PROJECT FINAL REPORT, A PROTOTYPE SYSTEM FOR REAL-TIME INCIDENT LIKELIHOOD PREDICTION
  • Creators:
  • Corporate Creators:
    Purdue University
  • Corporate Contributors:
    ITS IDEA Program
  • Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Publication/ Report Number:
    EDL #4111
  • Resource Type:
    Research Paper
  • TRIS Online Accession Number:
    00727272
  • Corporate Publisher:
    United States. Federal Highway Administration
  • NTL Classification:
    NTL-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
  • Abstract:
    In the first part of this Innovations Deserving Exploratory Analysis (IDEA) project, efforts were focused on developing and validating the freeway incident likelihood prediction models that form the core of a prototype system for real-time incident likelihood prediction. In the second part of the research, an incident likelihood prediction simulator was developed. This report describes the incorporation of the incident likelihood prediction models into the simulator. A traffic simulator (INTRAS) is used to generate the traffic characteristics (i.e., volume and speed) that are inputs to the freeway incident likelihood prediction models, whereas the environmental conditions are specified by the user. The simulator combines the sequential outputs from an existing incident detection algorithm and those of the incident likelihood prediction models through Bayesian updating. 17 p.
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