United States Department of Transportation
i
Freeway Travel-Time Estimation and Forecasting [2012]
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2012-09-01
[PDF-5.33 MB]
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Abstract:This project presents a microsimulation-based framework for generating short-term forecasts of travel time on freeway corridors. The microsimulation model that is developed (GTsim), replicates freeway capacity drop and relaxation phenomena critical for modeling non-steady state conditions. This framework is evaluated offline on a real-world freeway corridor by using data from manual counts and the Georgia Department of Transportation's video detection system. The travel time forecasts are compared with ground truth travel time data; the comparison demonstrated the efficacy of this framework to produce realistic forecasts. The study results showed that this framework can provide sufficiently accurate 5-minute and 10-minute forecasts and that it outperforms state-of-the-practice methods such as instantaneous travel time.
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