Developing deterioration models for Wyoming bridges.

Details

• Creators:
  Chang, Minwoo ; Maguire, Marc
• Corporate Creators:
  Utah State University. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• Corporate Contributors:
  Wyoming. Department of Transportation ; United States. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Bridge Management Systems Bridges Deterioration Explanatory Variables Markov Decision Process Markov Processes Regression Analysis Stochastic Processes Deterioration Models
• Publication/ Report Number:
  FHWA-WY-16/09F
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States;Wyoming
• Edition:
  Final report
• Corporate Publisher:
  Wyoming. Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  Deterioration models for the Wyoming Bridge Inventory were developed using both stochastic and deterministic models.
  
  The selection of explanatory variables is investigated and a new method using LASSO regression to eliminate human bias
  
  in explanatory variable selection. The cross validation technique is used to determine the minimum number of explanatory
  
  variables. The relative significance of candidate variables is used to rank the explanatory variables in hierarchical order.
  
  The deterministic deterioration models are developed by using curve-fitting methods for the mean of bridge ages for each
  
  condition rating. In order to improve the accuracy in the model, bridges are split into the multiple subsets using first two
  
  explanatory variables for deck, superstructure, and substructure. Although the deterministic deterioration model is
  
  insufficient to predict condition ratings for a specific bridge, it is worthy to observe a general feature of how the
  
  functionality of bridges becomes worse over time.
  
  The stochastic models are developed to capture the uncertainty in the deterioration process using the Markov chain. The
  
  transition probability matrix is estimated using percentage prediction method, which counts the numbers corresponding to
  
  the element of transition probability matrix. The same subsets used in the deterministic deterioration models are considered.
  
  For each subset, zoning technique is used such that the bridge data is grouped for every 30 years to estimate transition
  
  probability matrix separately.
  
  The source codes are provided for the future update of bridge inventory and stochastic deterioration models. A computer
  
  program is used develop and plot deterioration models. A simple guideline is also included so that the user can access the
  
  source codes conveniently.
  
  Author ORCID information:
  
  Minwoo Chang; ORCID number 0000-0002-5749-078X
  
  Marc Maguire; ORCID number 0000-0002-7897-0344
  
  
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  RS04214
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:8023d27e3358a884ddc59da0b33e8cf55fe15b587efa53b98eff3ad3c2e3b7806d337bccbe2f0a7e7a672fc35ff3712ee4d2bf2ce00637ed7a54b9ebe20880bf
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/31036/dot_31036_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 6.33 MB ]