Developing deterioration models for Wyoming bridges.

Details

• Creators:
  Chang, Minwoo ; Maguire, Marc
• Corporate Creators:
  Utah State University. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• Corporate Contributors:
  Wyoming. Department of Transportation ; United States. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Bridge management systems
  • Bridges
  • Deterioration
  • Markov processes
  • Regression analysis
  • Stochastic processes Deterioration models
  • Markov decision process
  • explanatory variables
• Publication/ Report Number:
  FHWA-WY-16/09F
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States;Wyoming
• Edition:
  Final report
• Corporate Publisher:
  Wyoming. Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  Deterioration models for the Wyoming Bridge Inventory were developed using both stochastic and deterministic models. ; The selection of explanatory variables is investigated and a new method using LASSO regression to eliminate human bias ; in explanatory variable selection. The cross validation technique is used to determine the minimum number of explanatory ; variables. The relative significance of candidate variables is used to rank the explanatory variables in hierarchical order. ; The deterministic deterioration models are developed by using curve-fitting methods for the mean of bridge ages for each ; condition rating. In order to improve the accuracy in the model, bridges are split into the multiple subsets using first two ; explanatory variables for deck, superstructure, and substructure. Although the deterministic deterioration model is ; insufficient to predict condition ratings for a specific bridge, it is worthy to observe a general feature of how the ; functionality of bridges becomes worse over time. ; The stochastic models are developed to capture the uncertainty in the deterioration process using the Markov chain. The ; transition probability matrix is estimated using percentage prediction method, which counts the numbers corresponding to ; the element of transition probability matrix. The same subsets used in the deterministic deterioration models are considered. ; For each subset, zoning technique is used such that the bridge data is grouped for every 30 years to estimate transition ; probability matrix separately. ; The source codes are provided for the future update of bridge inventory and stochastic deterioration models. A computer ; program is used develop and plot deterioration models. A simple guideline is also included so that the user can access the ; source codes conveniently. ; Author ORCID information: ; Minwoo Chang; ORCID number 0000-0002-5749-078X ; Marc Maguire; ORCID number 0000-0002-7897-0344
  More +
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  RS04214
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/31036/dot_31036_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 6.33 MB]
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:8023d27e3358a884ddc59da0b33e8cf55fe15b587efa53b98eff3ad3c2e3b7806d337bccbe2f0a7e7a672fc35ff3712ee4d2bf2ce00637ed7a54b9ebe20880bf