Towards Inferring Welfare Changes from Changes in Curbside Parking Occupancy Rates: A Theoretical Analysis Motivated by SF Park and LA Express Park Cruising For Parking Around a Circle
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2016-12-01
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Corporate Contributors:California Department of Transportation. Division of Research, Innovation and System Information ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program ; United States. Department of Transportation. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology
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Edition:Research Report 2/5/15 to 5/1/16
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Abstract:There has recently been considerable interest in cruising for curbside parking as a major contributor to traffic congestion in the downtown areas of major cities. This paper focuses on the expected search time for a curbside parking space. The literature has employed three different approaches to estimate expected cruising-for-parking time: direct measurement, inference based on the equilibrium condition that (for the marginal parker) the expected cost of curbside parking equals the expected cost of garage parking, and inference based on the observed occupancy rate of curbside parking and an assumed statistical relationship between expected cruising-for-parking time and the curbside parking occupancy rate. The last approach typically obtains estimates of expected cruising-for-parking times that are lower, and with high occupancy rates much lower, than those estimated using the other two approaches. This paper takes a step towards resolving this inconsistency by demonstrating, through computer simulation of cars cruising for parking around a circle in stochastic steady state, that an approximating assumption in the derived statistical relationship between expected cruising-for-parking time and the curbside parking occupancy rate leads to underestimation of average cruising-for-parking time, and at high occupancy rates very considerable underestimation. The paper also identifies several "effects" that contribute to the approximating assumption being an increasingly poor one as the occupancy rate increases.
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