Methodology of homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov Chains for modeling bridge element deterioration.
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Methodology of homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov Chains for modeling bridge element deterioration.

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  • English

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    • Edition:
      Final report.
    • NTL Classification:
      NTL-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION-Bridges and Structures
    • Abstract:
      Bridge management is an important activity of transportation agencies in the US

      and in many other countries. A critical aspect of bridge management is to reliably predict

      the deterioration of bridge structures, so that appropriate or optimal actions can be

      selected to reduce or minimize the deterioration rate and maximize the effect of spending

      for replacement or maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R). In the US, Pontis is

      the most popular bridge management system used among the state transportation

      agencies. Its deterioration model uses the Markov Chain, with a statistical regression to

      estimate the required transition probabilities. This is the core part of deterioration

      prediction in Pontis.

      This report focuses on the Markov Chain model used in Pontis, which is vital to

      the understanding and implementation of the Pontis software. Emphasis has been made

      on the limitations of Pontis methodology, and establishing a new method for transition

      probability estimation. This is because predicting deterioration is the basis for decisionmaking

      with respect to MR&R. The next portion of this chapter presents a literature

      review on the subject of estimating transition probability matrix using Markov Chain for

      modeling deterioration in civil engineering facilities, such as bridges, pavements, and

      waste water systems.

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