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Methodology of homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov Chains for modeling bridge element deterioration.
  • Published Date:
    2008-08-01
  • Language:
    English
Filetype[PDF-2.20 MB]


Details:
  • Resource Type:
  • Geographical Coverage:
  • OCLC Number:
    676698618
  • Edition:
    Final report.
  • NTL Classification:
    NTL-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION-Bridges and Structures
  • Format:
  • Abstract:
    Bridge management is an important activity of transportation agencies in the US

    and in many other countries. A critical aspect of bridge management is to reliably predict

    the deterioration of bridge structures, so that appropriate or optimal actions can be

    selected to reduce or minimize the deterioration rate and maximize the effect of spending

    for replacement or maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R). In the US, Pontis is

    the most popular bridge management system used among the state transportation

    agencies. Its deterioration model uses the Markov Chain, with a statistical regression to

    estimate the required transition probabilities. This is the core part of deterioration

    prediction in Pontis.

    This report focuses on the Markov Chain model used in Pontis, which is vital to

    the understanding and implementation of the Pontis software. Emphasis has been made

    on the limitations of Pontis methodology, and establishing a new method for transition

    probability estimation. This is because predicting deterioration is the basis for decisionmaking

    with respect to MR&R. The next portion of this chapter presents a literature

    review on the subject of estimating transition probability matrix using Markov Chain for

    modeling deterioration in civil engineering facilities, such as bridges, pavements, and

    waste water systems.

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