United States Department of Transportation
i
Methodology of homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov Chains for modeling bridge element deterioration.
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2008-08-01
[PDF-2.20 MB]
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Edition:Final report.
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Abstract:Bridge management is an important activity of transportation agencies in the US
and in many other countries. A critical aspect of bridge management is to reliably predict
the deterioration of bridge structures, so that appropriate or optimal actions can be
selected to reduce or minimize the deterioration rate and maximize the effect of spending
for replacement or maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R). In the US, Pontis is
the most popular bridge management system used among the state transportation
agencies. Its deterioration model uses the Markov Chain, with a statistical regression to
estimate the required transition probabilities. This is the core part of deterioration
prediction in Pontis.
This report focuses on the Markov Chain model used in Pontis, which is vital to
the understanding and implementation of the Pontis software. Emphasis has been made
on the limitations of Pontis methodology, and establishing a new method for transition
probability estimation. This is because predicting deterioration is the basis for decisionmaking
with respect to MR&R. The next portion of this chapter presents a literature
review on the subject of estimating transition probability matrix using Markov Chain for
modeling deterioration in civil engineering facilities, such as bridges, pavements, and
waste water systems.
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