United States Department of Transportation
i
Do changing prices portend a shift in fuel consumption, diminished greenhouse gas emissions, and lower fuel tax revenue?
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2015-01-01
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[PDF-2.16 MB]
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Abstract:The growing uncertainty about oil prices and availability has made long-range transportation planning
more challenging. Rather than relying on trend extrapolation, this study uses market mechanisms to
evaluate key long-range transportation planning assumptions. Although the Washington Department of
Transportation (WSDOT) is pursuing alternative fuels and energy sources, this study focuses primarily on
natural gas. In particular, this study will help WSDOT assess the likelihood natural gas will substitute for
petroleum fuels and estimate the impact changes in fuel prices will have on travel demand, fuel
consumption, emissions, and tax revenues.
The results of the modeling show that the impacts of natural gas vehicles (NGV) have the potential to
affect vehicle miles traveled (VMT), emissions, and fuel tax revenue. The effects of NGVs are muted by
the limited use of them in the fleet. Challenges with widespread integration include the increased upfront
capital costs associated with NGVs, decreased power for heavy vehicles, and range anxiety in locations
without developed natural gas fueling infrastructure. The NGV market in the state of Washington is
hampered by these factors. The modeling and analysis in this report can be used to analyze changing
conditions in the market and the effects on key transportation metrics.
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