Does natural gas make sense for freight? Environmental and resource implications of the "Pickens Plan".
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2013-04-01
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NTL Classification:NTL-FREIGHT-FREIGHT;NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Environment Impacts;NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Air Quality;
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Abstract:The “Pickens Plan” is a highly promoted U.S. energy strategy, proposing to use natural gas as a transportation fuel to
displace imported oil and, simultaneously, to increase renewable contributions to national electricity production. While the
principal goal of the Pickens Plan is to improve domestic energy security and its associated foreign trade imbalance, we
investigated the proposed strategies for their environmental benefits. We simulated a variation of the Pickens Plan across
a seven-state Midwestern U.S. region to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) and air quality implications of the plan. In
this scenario, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is used to replace 100 percent of long-haul, diesel-powered freight, while windpower
is roughly doubled over the anticipated 2020 levels under existing renewable portfolio standards. Relative to a
business-as-usual (BAU) reference case, the Pickens scenario reduces NOx, SO2, and GHG emissions. Most reductions
occur within the electricity sector versus the freight sector: 73 percent of NOx reductions, 99 percent of SO2 reductions,
and 94 percent of GHG reductions occurred within the power sector. While the LNG truck is estimated to have 21 percent
lower GHG emissions than its diesel counterpart, methane leakage from the natural gas fuel cycle significantly reduces
the GHG benefit from LNG trucking. Thus, LNG-powered freight only slightly reduces greenhouse gas emissions relative
to the diesel-powered freight. To assess the benefits of natural gas in the transportation sector (Pickens Plan) versus the
electricity sector, we considered a scenario where natural gas is increased in the electricity sector instead of the freight
sector. This scenario yielded greater emissions reductions than the Pickens plan for all species, suggesting that natural
gas fuel switching has more impact as an emissions mitigating measure within the electricity sector, rather than within the
freight sector. To assess how emissions reductions would affect ambient pollutant concentrations, and the formation of
secondary air pollutants, we employed a regional air quality model. Under the Pickens scenario, ambient concentrations
of SO2, NO2, O3 and PM2.5 were all reduced relative to BAU. In general, the largest reductions were simulated near metro
areas, along major highways, and in the Ohio River Valley.
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