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Does natural gas make sense for freight? Environmental and resource implications of the "Pickens Plan".

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    NTL-FREIGHT-FREIGHT ; NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Environment Impacts ; NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Air Quality
  • Abstract:
    The “Pickens Plan” is a highly promoted U.S. energy strategy, proposing to use natural gas as a transportation fuel to ; displace imported oil and, simultaneously, to increase renewable contributions to national electricity production. While the ; principal goal of the Pickens Plan is to improve domestic energy security and its associated foreign trade imbalance, we ; investigated the proposed strategies for their environmental benefits. We simulated a variation of the Pickens Plan across ; a seven-state Midwestern U.S. region to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) and air quality implications of the plan. In ; this scenario, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is used to replace 100 percent of long-haul, diesel-powered freight, while windpower ; is roughly doubled over the anticipated 2020 levels under existing renewable portfolio standards. Relative to a ; business-as-usual (BAU) reference case, the Pickens scenario reduces NOx, SO2, and GHG emissions. Most reductions ; occur within the electricity sector versus the freight sector: 73 percent of NOx reductions, 99 percent of SO2 reductions, ; and 94 percent of GHG reductions occurred within the power sector. While the LNG truck is estimated to have 21 percent ; lower GHG emissions than its diesel counterpart, methane leakage from the natural gas fuel cycle significantly reduces ; the GHG benefit from LNG trucking. Thus, LNG-powered freight only slightly reduces greenhouse gas emissions relative ; to the diesel-powered freight. To assess the benefits of natural gas in the transportation sector (Pickens Plan) versus the ; electricity sector, we considered a scenario where natural gas is increased in the electricity sector instead of the freight ; sector. This scenario yielded greater emissions reductions than the Pickens plan for all species, suggesting that natural ; gas fuel switching has more impact as an emissions mitigating measure within the electricity sector, rather than within the ; freight sector. To assess how emissions reductions would affect ambient pollutant concentrations, and the formation of ; secondary air pollutants, we employed a regional air quality model. Under the Pickens scenario, ambient concentrations ; of SO2, NO2, O3 and PM2.5 were all reduced relative to BAU. In general, the largest reductions were simulated near metro ; areas, along major highways, and in the Ohio River Valley.
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    Filetype[PDF - 5.60 MB]
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    urn:sha-512:570beeea8df0adfbfc91b212eb751f370f62ba4358a30230ff2b67f15e8cc92df821ea2be7ff6ba06da14418a2c16d2f0ddc9918edecf5478e7c4fbfe8d87151
File Language:
English
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