United States Department of Transportation
i
Forecasting paratransit services demand : review and recommendations.
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2013-06-01
[PDF-1.29 MB]
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NTL Classification:NTL-PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION-Paratransit;NTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Travel Demand;
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Abstract:Travel demand forecasting tools for Florida’s paratransit services are outdated, utilizing old national trip
generation rate generalities and simple linear regression models. In its guidance for the development of
mandated Transportation Disadvantaged Service Plans (TDSP), the Florida Commission for the Transportation
Disadvantaged (CTD) refers transit planners to the May 1993 “Methodology Guidelines for Forecasting TD
Transportation Demand at the County Level” to develop forecasts of transportation disadvantaged
populations.
This report examines the current demand forecasting procedure, examines samples of other forecasting
methods, and details critical factors that should be considered in addressing the development of a new
paratransit demand forecasting model.
The report concludes with the development of an updated paratransit service demand model and details
its application. A dynamic model spreadsheet was developed which requires relatively simple and minimal
data inputs by the end user.
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