NTL-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE-Economic Impacts;NTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-PLANNING AND POLICY;
Abstract:
Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, particular attention must be given to obtaining the most accurate demographic and socioeconomic forecasts. The Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI), model, which was customized for the state of Indiana, is the fundamental tool employed by Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) to provide long-range socioeconomic forecasts that are used as inputs to the ISTDM. In the recent development of its 2035 long-range plan, INDOT attempted to use the REMI model for the long range socioeconomic forecasts. For Indiana’s large manufacturing sector, the REMI forecast for employment was extremely pessimistic, predicting that total employment would not return to 2007 levels until 2035. Instead, INDOT used a forecast from Woods and Poole, which showed a short-term employment reduction, followed by modest levels of employment growth extending to 2035.
The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI...
The limitations of currently used estimation procedures in socio-economic modeling have been highlighted in the ongoing work of Senge, in which it is ...
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