Socioeconomic Forecasting

Details

• Alternative Title:
  JTRP Technical Reports
• Creators:
  Xiong, Yingge ; Fricker, Jon D. ; McNamara, Kevin T. ; Longley, Joseph W.
• Corporate Creators:
  Purdue University. Joint Transportation Research Program
• Corporate Contributors:
  Indiana Department of Transportation ; United States. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Socioeconomic factors
  • Economic and social factors
  • Impact studies
  • Panel studies
  • Socioeconomic data
  • ISTDM
  • REMI
  • Economic impact analysis
  • Expert panel
• Publication/ Report Number:
  FHWA/IN/JTRP-2012/05
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  Indiana
• Edition:
  Final report.
• Corporate Publisher:
  Purdue University. Joint Transportation Research Program
• Abstract:
  The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI ; PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI PI+, like its competitors, is vulnerable to the trends contained ; in the historical data it uses, especially recent trends. After the most recent periodic update in data, the performance of the REMI PI+ model improved, that ; is, it produced long‐term forecasts that were more credible. Zonal‐level population and employment forecasts for direct input to the Indiana Statewide ; Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) can be achieved by applying disaggregation regression methods. Indiana University’s Center for Econometric Model ; Research (CEMR) model is also a sound forecasting model. Because of the knowledge of in‐state economists, the CEMR‐IBRC model could provide forecasts ; of the Indiana economy that reflect characteristics not known to out‐of‐state forecasters. The researchers also examined economic impact analysis models ; that are possible alternatives to REMI PI+. Acquiring a new economic impact analysis package does not seem necessary for INDOT, if REMI forecasts can be ; adjusted to (a) accommodate recent and reasonable expected trends in the Indiana economy, and (b) meet the geographic (TAZ) needs of the ISTDM. ; MCIBAS—which is currently used by the Indiana Department of Transportation—is a good hybrid system to use in the economic impacts analysis of ; transportation projects. Indiana University’s CEMR is capable of conducting economic impact analyses, with local knowledge of the Indiana economy, at a ; cost lower than REMI’s. However, INDOT would have to decide whether these potential advantages justify changing the present relationship with REMI. In ; cases where the credibility of data, forecasts, and/or impact analyses needs to be verified, an INDOT version of an expert panel along the lines of Michigan’s ; Transportation Technical Committee could be convened.
  More +
• Format:
  PDF
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/25409/dot_25409_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 5.74 MB]
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:9f09fe7b829bcb47587d88c94b69ddff777c53a5c547ad4382eefca2be7151306b3c1368b6322a6007e065a985bea9a3e64ee25169f66c35ce0bcb5a3031f70f