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California's 2050 travel demand : anticipating an era of climate change and energy constraints.
  • Published Date:
    2008-05-30
  • Language:
    English
Filetype[PDF-268.47 KB]


Details:
  • Resource Type:
  • Geographical Coverage:
  • OCLC Number:
    649489656
  • Corporate Publisher:
  • NTL Classification:
    NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Environment Impacts ; NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-Air Quality ; NTL-PLANNING AND POLICY-Travel Demand ;
  • Abstract:
    The long-term context for California’s transportation systems is one of significant transformation. Neither “business as usual” or slow incremental change are likely to represent the future because of climate change mitigation and energy supply issues. Although uncertainly about these factors makes long term planning difficult, regional transportation planning processes should address these issues head on.

    This report is based on a literature review that describes issues in climate change mitigation and energy supply, current initiatives at the state level, and current practice in addressing these issues in regional transportation plans. It then summarizes the 2050 prognosis for California’s population, economy, and greenhouse gas mitigation and energy issues. Conceptual models are developed concerning the impact of greenhouse gas and energy issues on personal travel demand and goods movement. Drawing the literature, an alternative scenario for 2050 is discussed. The overall finding is that “business as usual” forecasts may overestimate future demand for personal travel and goods movement.

    The report concludes with an overview of issues in long-term forecasts, and develops the concept of robustness and adaptability to guide long-term transportation planning. A variety of long-forecasting tools are available. Their effect is not so much as to correctly predict 2050 conditions, but assist in the assessment of near-term actions that make sense in terms of a wide variety of 2050 scenarios.

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