Uncertainty-based tradeoff analysis methodology for integrated transportation investment decision-making.
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2009-10-28
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Abstract:Transportation agencies strive to maintain their systems in good condition and also to provide ; acceptable levels of service to users. However, funding is often inadequate to meet the needs ; of system preservation and expansion, and thus performance- and budget-constrained ; optimization continues to be an issue. Adding complexity to this issue is the increasing visibility ; of different stakeholders who advocate for consideration of a multiplicity of diverse ; perspectives in the highway decision-making process. Thus agencies are grappling with the issue ; of how best to incorporate multiple performance objectives in their decision-making processes. ; Some of these objectives conflict with each other, and therefore a need arises for decisionmakers ; to find optimal solutions that examine the tradeoffs and provide a reasonable balance ; between the different objectives. Furthermore, there is the issue of uncertainty: outcomes of ; projects are never exactly what the decision-makers envisage; if such inevitable uncertainties ; are not duly accounted for, the final decision that may seem optimal may actually be associated ; with high risk. Finally, at most agencies, the management of highway assets is divided into ; several sub-areas such as pavements and safety assets. In this management structure, optimal ; management decisions are carried out separately for specific types of highway assets or ; management systems but do not always guarantee a global optimal strategy for all the ; management systems combined. Thus, a decision-making framework that integrates all asset ; types is needed to enhance decision-making and to ensure more efficient use of scarce funds. ; Clearly, a need exists for a multi-objective decision-making problem that integrates the various ; management systems, duly incorporates uncertainty, and helps decision-makers assess the ; tradeoffs between the performance measures. This study addresses that need.
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