The future of transportation planning : dynamic travel behavior analyses based on stochastic decision-making styles : final report.

Details

• Creators:
  Liu, Rongtang (Rachel) ; Li, Guilin
• Corporate Creators:
  New Jersey Institute of Technology. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
• Corporate Contributors:
  New Jersey Institute of Technology ; United States. Department of Transportation. University Transportation Centers (UTC) Program
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Choice models
  • Decision making
  • Forecasting
  • Future
  • Research
  • Stochastic processes
  • Surveys
  • Traffic forecasting
  • Transportation planning
  • Travel behavior
  More +
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Final report
• Corporate Publisher:
  New Jersey Institute of Technology
• Abstract:
  Over the past half-century, the progress of travel behavior research and travel demand forecasting has been spear ; headed and continuously propelled by the micro-economic theories, specifically utility maximization. There is no ; denial that the travel demand models today are sophisticated and in most cases capable of forecasting the main ; stream of travel behavior in urban areas. However, a quick scan of those models or travel ; behavior analyses reveals great discrepancies between what is expected and the actual capabilities of the models. ; These discrepancies go beyond the statistical errors between actual travel behavior and travel demand forecasts, ; based on theoretical assumptions. ; The authors of this paper approach the travel behavior analysis differently. They posed and attempted to answer the ; following questions: ; - Are we applying the appropriate assumptions to the right people for their travel behavior? ; - Are the assumptions we use to reflect the actual decision-making processes for the travelers correct? ; The proposed approach suggests that we stand back and look at a few levels up along the decision-making process. ; The conceptual framework of this approach includes: ; - A “travel behavior survey” that collects data on decision-making styles, ; - Stochastic processes to capture the linkage between decision making styles and traveler’s characteristics, ; and ; - Dynamic assignments of travel choice models according to identified decision-making styles. ; It is clear that great challenges lie ahead for the approach proposed here. The lack of development of less ; researched decision-making styles create great challenges. However, they also provide opportunities for ; transportation professionals to explore along multiple paths of investigation. The conceptual framework and initial ; attempts presented here may serve as a stimulus for further explorations. Reasonable representations for different ; types of decision-making styles will help transportation professionals to understand the fundamentals of travel ; behaviors. The better understanding of the travel behavior and demand will further help in developing more efficient ; transportation systems.
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• Format:
  PDF
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/16154/dot_16154_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 311.24 KB]
• Collection(s):
  University Transportation Centers ; US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:1cd7f1aacdd6fd86790cac06d356f334948a7918448041357721efb3a6a1543a