United States Department of Transportation
i
The future of transportation planning : dynamic travel behavior analyses based on stochastic decision-making styles : final report.
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2003-08-01
[PDF-311.24 KB]
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Edition:Final report
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Abstract:Over the past half-century, the progress of travel behavior research and travel demand forecasting has been spear
headed and continuously propelled by the micro-economic theories, specifically utility maximization. There is no
denial that the travel demand models today are sophisticated and in most cases capable of forecasting the main
stream of travel behavior in urban areas. However, a quick scan of those models or travel
behavior analyses reveals great discrepancies between what is expected and the actual capabilities of the models.
These discrepancies go beyond the statistical errors between actual travel behavior and travel demand forecasts,
based on theoretical assumptions.
The authors of this paper approach the travel behavior analysis differently. They posed and attempted to answer the
following questions:
- Are we applying the appropriate assumptions to the right people for their travel behavior?
- Are the assumptions we use to reflect the actual decision-making processes for the travelers correct?
The proposed approach suggests that we stand back and look at a few levels up along the decision-making process.
The conceptual framework of this approach includes:
- A “travel behavior survey” that collects data on decision-making styles,
- Stochastic processes to capture the linkage between decision making styles and traveler’s characteristics,
and
- Dynamic assignments of travel choice models according to identified decision-making styles.
It is clear that great challenges lie ahead for the approach proposed here. The lack of development of less
researched decision-making styles create great challenges. However, they also provide opportunities for
transportation professionals to explore along multiple paths of investigation. The conceptual framework and initial
attempts presented here may serve as a stimulus for further explorations. Reasonable representations for different
types of decision-making styles will help transportation professionals to understand the fundamentals of travel
behaviors. The better understanding of the travel behavior and demand will further help in developing more efficient
transportation systems.
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