Transportation Impacts of Berkeley Hills Tunnel Disruption by Earthquakes

Details

• Creators:
  Han, Tianyu ; Zhao, Bingyu ; Tang, Yili (Kelly) ; Comfort, Louise ; Soga, Kenichi
• Corporate Creators:
  Technische Universität Wien ; University of Western Ontario ; University of Pittsburgh ; University of California, Berkeley
• Corporate Contributors:
  University of California Institute of Transportation Studies
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Computer Models Disaster Resilience Earthquake Engineering Earthquakes Highways Hills Rail Transit Service Disruption Tunnels
• Publication/ Report Number:
  UC-ITS-2024-14
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.7922/G2J964SM
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States ; California
• Edition:
  Final Report (December 2023 - December 2025)
• Corporate Publisher:
  University of California, Berkeley. Institute of Transportation Studies
• Abstract:
  In the San Francisco Bay Area, earthquake damage to a small number of critical transportation facilities can produce regionwide mobility impacts. This report evaluates the Berkeley Hills Tunnel, a key Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) cross-hills connection, using an integrated model that links tunnel seismic performance to transportation consequences during disruption and recovery. The model couples scenario-based seismic assessment of the tunnel with screening-level fragility for substitute corridors and propagates the resulting time-dependent capacity states through a transportation simulation. At a representative recovery-stage demand of 25 percent of normal, mean cross-hills travel time rises from about 9 minutes in the mildest scenario (327-year return period) to about 41 minutes in the most severe (654-year). In that severe case, a fully subscribed bus bridge can lower the mean cross-hills travel time by up to 30 percent. Uncertainty quantification identifies recovery-stage demand as the dominant source of travel-time variance and shows that unfavorable capacity combinations can nearly double travel time relative to the central estimate. Disruption falls disproportionately on transit-dependent travelers, who either endure longer travel times or pay an extra travel fee. Agencies can use the workflow to assess disruption impacts and identify likely bottlenecks, compare recovery-stage operational strategies, and target equitable service for affected populations.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  UC-ITS-2024-14
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:d33c8e460e33978b3400caa0635c9d6772fc02aa00569ed9c59f62dd7b83b5d5f05e93a609f1a588bcb4862c06dce29af23f592178b0514b14df23761bf476e6
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/92845/dot_92845_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.67 MB ]