Quantifying Maritime Chokepoint Disruptions Using AIS Data: A Post-Event Impact Measurement Framework for Networked Transportation Systems

Details

• Creators:
  Im, Yunseop
• Corporate Creators:
  Georgia Institute of Technology
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Assessments Automatic Vessel Control Data Collection Detectors Forecasting Performance Real Time Control Service Disruption Transportation System Management Water Transportation
• Resource Type:
  Manuscript
• Right Statement:
  Open Access: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Technical Report (research manuscript)
• Corporate Publisher:
  Georgia Institute of Technology
• Abstract:
  This document records an analytical review of a post-event measurement approach applied to major maritime chokepoint disruptions using AIS vessel presence data. The purpose of the work is limited in scope. It is intended to support after-action assessment and comparison of disruption effects once abnormal operating conditions have already materialized. Current maritime monitoring practices are generally effective at identifying that an incident has occurred. They are less effective at describing how disruption intensity evolves, how long abnormal conditions persist, or how recovery unfolds at the network level. This assessment addresses that gap by examining observed vessel accumulation relative to expected baseline behavior. The framework does not attempt to forecast disruptions or issue early alerts. Measurements are produced only after congestion has accumulated to a level detectable in aggregated AIS observations. Impact is evaluated using three descriptive quantities: the largest observed deviation from baseline conditions, the duration over which deviations remain sustained, and the cumulative deviation observed over the disruption window. Expected baseline behavior is estimated using a counterfactual reference constructed from comparable control locations.
• Content Notes:
  This is an independent technical research report submitted by the author. This work was conducted independently and without U.S. Department of Transportation funding. It is provided as a public research contribution aligned with the goals of open access, long-term preservation, and knowledge dissemination in transportation systems and infrastructure resilience.
  
  The contents of this report reflect the views of the author, who is responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated in the interest of information exchange. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the U.S. Department of Transportation. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof.
  
  
• Format:
  PDF
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:ba14a27f54a0a3594948de2d9cc693d6e449866482d08b23b013d56a05e5aab46ebd9c86e5d20d4f23a8a2f0b40a079f2e5194c1468b8205f6a3e3a16f6b69cf
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/88983/dot_88983_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 516.16 KB ]