Alternative Regression Equations for Estimation of Annual Peak-Streamflow Frequency for Undeveloped Watersheds in Texas Using PRESS Minimization

Details

• Creators:
  Asquith, William H. ; Thompson, David B.
• Corporate Creators:
  United States. Geological Survey (USGS)
• Corporate Contributors:
  Texas Department of Transportation. Research and Technology Implementation Office ; United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Flood Plains Floods Regression Analysis Streamflow Watersheds
• Publication/ Report Number:
  FHWA/TX-05/0-4405-2
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States ; Texas
• Edition:
  September 2003–August 2005
• Corporate Publisher:
  Texas. Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  Peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of dams, levees, other flood-control structures; and for design of roads, bridges, and culverts. Peak-streamflow frequency represents the collective peak streamflow for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. A common model for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency is based on the regional regression method. The current (2005) regional regression equations for 11 regions of Texas are based on log10 transformations on all regression variables (drainage area, main-channel slope, watershed shape). The log10-exclusive transformation does not fully linearize the relations between the variables, and the effect is demonstrated. As a result, some systematic bias remains in the current equations. The bias results in overestimation of peak streamflow for both the smallest and largest watersheds. The bias increases with increasing recurrence interval. The primary source of the bias is the discernible curvilinear relation between peak streamflow and drainage area in log10 space. The bias is demonstrated by selected residual plots with superimposed LOWESS (LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smoothing) trend lines. To address the bias, a statistical framework based on minimization of the PRESS (PRediction Error Sum of Squares) statistic through power transformation on drainage area is described, implemented, and the resulting regression equations reported. Compared to log10-exclusive equations, the equations derived from PRESS minimization have PRESS statistics and residual standard errors less than those of the log10-exclusive equations. Selected residual plots for the PRESS-minimized equations demonstrate that the systematic bias in regional regression equations for peak-streamflow frequency estimation in Texas can be removed. Because the overall error is similar to the overall error associated with the equations currently in use and bias is removed, the PRESS-minimized equations provide an alternative technique for peak-streamflow frequency estimation. A promising line of research into peak-streamflow frequency estimation through the regional regression method is demonstrated.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  0-4405
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:a33ebf52ad41ad7d8d754309f4741f733341bde887db629b1c26783f31751b264a1836d382ac6ac806b9c2ec7472e949e696f508b841e006cbf6e61934e8196d
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/87732/dot_87732_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 628.17 KB ]