Details:

Creators:
Mengert, Peter
Corporate Creators:
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
Subject/TRT Terms:
[+]
Accident Prediction Crash Rates Grade Crossing Hazard Analysis Hazard Index Nonlinear Regression Railroad Grade Crossings
Publication/ Report Number:
DOT-TSC-FRA-79-1 ; F'RA-RRS-80-02
DOT-TSC-FRA-79-1 ; F'RA-RRS-80-02 Less -
Resource Type:
Tech Report
Edition:
Final Report; Jan.-Aug. 1979
Corporate Publisher:
United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Railroad Administration
Abstract:
This document presents techniques for constructing and evaluating railroad grade

crossing hazard indexes. Hazard indexes are objective formulas for comparing or ranking

crossings according to relative hazard or for calculating absolute hazard (conditional

expected frequency of grade crossing accidents) on an individual crossing

basis. Relative and absolute hazard indexes are constructed and compared in performance

with some hazard indexes in general use. The DOT-AAR crossing inventory for

all public crossings in the United States and the FRA accident data base for 1975 are

used. Various measures and displays of performance of hazard indexes in predicting

the hazard of crossings as functions of their inventory characteristics and as manifest

in the U.S. accident experience of 1975 are given. The levels of performance

that may be expected of various hazard indexes in various situations are given. Relative

and absolute hazard indexes constructed on this project are exhibited which

outperform other hazard indexes tested. Means for shaping a relative hazard index

into an absolute hazard index are given. An introductory discussion is provided on

the use of accident history in hazard indexes. Preliminary estimates are given of

some of the parameters involved in that discussion. Theoretical aspects of this

report include some discussions of nonlinear regression and nonlinear discriminant

ana??ysis as well as some aspects of empirical Bayesian statistics.


Format:
PDF
Funding:
RR033/R0301
Collection(s):
Federal Railroad Administration Volpe
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:cc295498de488ce62e50a99322258efe9eead78e44719219d8644ba4f8f05fdc
Download URL:
https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8584/dot_8584_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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