A Dynamic Hurricane Risk Modeling Framework to Improve Bridge Safety Under Changing Climate
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2024-09-01
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By Yan, Grace
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Edition:Final Report, January 2022 – June 2024
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Abstract:Coastal regions have been experiencing more frequent and more intensive tropical cyclones (TCs) due to climate change in recent years. In 2020, the tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean made a number record in a season, with 30 named storms in total, 13 of which progressed into hurricanes. Global warming will continue, and climate change will follow (USGCRP, 2018), leading to more severe winds and storms and threating the safety of bridges in coastal regions. In order for local governments to take pro-active adaptations and measures, it is essential to understand the local impact of global climate change. To address this, this project will develop a new, efficient hurricane wind model, which can help determine the wind speed in the local region, before and after TCs make landfall. This will inform decision-makers when they develop near-term measures and long-term plans for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To achieve this research goal, by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of existing parametric TC models for engineering applications, this project will develop a high-fidelity, computationally efficient three-dimensional nonlinear TC model that can consider the varying land cover and terrains without too much simplification of the kinetic equations. The obtained results can be used to improve the AASHTO Bridge Design Specifications periodically to accommodate the future climate change, enhancing the resilience of bridges.
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