Implementation of Understanding the Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Long-Distance Travel Mode and Destination Choice in Texas
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2024-08-01
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Edition:August 2022 – December 2023
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Abstract:Privately owned and shared autonomous vehicles (AVs and SAVs) and automated trucks (ATrucks) are coming to the US and Texas. This project updated TxDOT’s Statewide Analysis Model (SAM) to integrate AVs, SAVs, and ATrucks as added transportation modes. For passenger trips over 50 miles (one way), the nested logit model was modified to include household-owned AVs and fleet-managed SAVs, under the drive-alone and shared-ride options (i.e., DA, SR2, and SR3+ persons). SAM applies fixed mode shares for all passenger trips under 50-miles one way (based on transit availability for different trip purposes and income groups), so a variety of fixed splits were assumed there. This study presents a comparative analysis of 7 distinct AV scenarios (for the year 2040) against the base “No AVs” scenario (with default SAM settings). The long-distance passenger-trip model assumes personal AVs cost $0.6 per mile, SAVs $1 per mile, and ATrucks cost 50% more than HTrucks with 25% reduction in VOTT while AVs and SAVs are assumed to have 20% reduction in VOTT as compared to HVs. Results suggest that, on average, individuals are likely to choose more remote destinations, as seen by an 18% rise in average trip length of long-distance (50-400 miles) business travel (from 121 miles to 142 miles) and 13% for non-business travel purposes (135 miles to 151 miles). AVs + SAVs will have a combined mode share of 14% for "drive alone" LD trips, leading to a 17 percentage-point decline in the human-driven mode share for trips over 50 miles. AVs + SAVs made up 9% of all person trips carrying two passengers and 15% when carrying three passengers. ATrucks emerged as the dominant choice, carrying 43% of commodity tons, while human-driven truck (HTruck) tonnage fell by 39% point compared to NO-AV case.
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