Forecasting TSPLOST Revenues in Georgia
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2023-10-01
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Edition:Final; March 2022 – October 2023
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Abstract:Due to the long-term planning involved in the design and construction of transportation infrastructure projects, transportation planners need reliable long-run forecasts and stable sources of revenue over the project timeline. Funding streams typically vary from period to period due to inherent volatility in the funding source or unforeseen events, or both. Additional understanding of the economy and improved forecasting techniques can reduce some of the uncertainty of volatile revenue sources. While improved forecasting techniques are not capable of anticipating unexpected events, such as a hurricane or wildfire, budget strategies do exist that can mitigate volatility in revenues arising from unforeseen events. These strategies include the use of rainy day funds and revenue diversification, among others. This research focuses on three areas of improvement: (1) documenting the economic and demographic factors that influence sales tax collections; (2) reviewing the available forecasting models and determining which types best suit the [Transportation Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax] TSPLOST regions of Central Savannah, River Valley, Heart of Georgia, and Southern Georgia; and (3) analyzing best practices in budgeting for transportation sales taxes using a case study approach.
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