United States Department of Transportation
i
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Based Tool to Estimate Contact Time
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2023-09-01
[PDF-7.36 MB]
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Edition:Final Report (April 2021 – Sept 2023)
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Abstract:MDT is in the process of modernizing their contract time determination processes by developing user-friendly tools to facilitate the estimation process of project duration and contract time. As part of this modernization effort, a top-down project duration estimation tool was developed in this research project. This tool is particularly useful when there is limited project information available during the early preconstruction stages. This research project involved the development of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based model that can predict the most probable duration of a construction project using an early cost estimate, major controlling work items, and their estimated quantities as input values. Additionally, a regression model with the same set of input variables was developed as a companion to the AI model. The models were trained and tested using historical project data of more than 1,000 highway projects from 2008 to 2019. To operationalize the models, a user-friendly Microsoft Excel tool named AI-PDET (Artificial Intelligence based Project Duration Estimation Model) was created. AI-PDET can be used throughout the preconstruction phases to quickly determine a reasonable project duration for proper project planning and delivery. Furthermore, it can serve as a reality check tool alongside bottom-up tools during the procurement stage. This report also provides specific guidance on updating the models and the database with new project data in AI-PDET.
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