United States Department of Transportation
i
Alaska Climate Trend Vulnerability Study
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2016-07-01
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[PDF-8.89 MB]
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Abstract:This report presents the findings of a study that examined three transportation projects in Alaska for potential vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. The study was initiated jointly by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (AKDOT&PF) and the United States Federal Land Management Agencies (FLMAs) through a grant provided by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The focus of the study was to better understand changing climate conditions in Alaska and how this understanding could potentially lead to more informed decisions on transportation asset investments, both capital investment and operation/maintenance decisions. The three case studies included an examination of roadway exposure to permafrost thaw, airport runway exposure to sea level rise and changing wind and sea ice patterns, and slope instability related to permafrost thaw and more intense precipitation. An eleven-step process developed by FHWA for engineering vulnerability assessment was used to develop the findings for each case study. The study found that future efforts to incorporate changing climate conditions into engineering decision-making will require a coordinated effort among federal agencies, state agencies, and academic or research institutions that focus on climate forecasts. The data produced by these agencies is often not specific to a project site and thus some effort is needed to translate the more aggregate forecasts to site-specific data. In particular, defining longer term climate change exposure in Alaska would benefit from more data on transportation assets including information on surrounding environmental conditions (e.g. permafrost measurement), site conditions (e.g. elevations), construction assumptions/methods, and any noted maintenance records that focus on environmentrelated problems. The application of the eleven-step process is outside of normal engineering practice and requires significant commitment and coordination for successful application as it is a new process requiring the development of information not currently prepared for other engineering projects. Shifting to a more risk-based decision-making framework will help facilitate this process moving forward. The case studies also showed that relatively low cost options can be viable strategies for dealing with climate change-related vulnerabilities. Importantly, the process of developing input data requires significant coordination between climate scientists and engineers.
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