Forecasting Travel-Time Reliability

Details

• Creators:
  Swanson, Ben ; Culp, Justin
• Corporate Creators:
  RSG, Inc.
• Corporate Contributors:
  Utah Department of Transportation ; United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Reliability
  • Travel time
  • Forecasting
  • Reliability (Statistics)
  • Buffer Time Index
• Publication/ Report Number:
  UT- 22.05
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Final, Dec 2020 to Feb 2022
• Corporate Publisher:
  Utah Department of Transportation
• Abstract:
  This analysis examined passively collected probe-vehicle travel-time data and traditional traffic counts to identify relationships between travel-time reliability and volume-to-capacity (V/C) ratios. Travel time and traffic volume data came from Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) data portals, and roadway capacities came from the Wasatch Front Travel Demand Model. RSG used the buffer-time index (BTI) metric to represent travel-time reliability in this analysis. Historical BTI values were calculated from observed travel-time data for study roadways. Observed traffic volumes and model roadway capacities were used to calculate V/C ratios for these same roadways. Relationships between V/C and BTI were established through regression analysis separately for freeway, ramp, and arterial roadways, after identifying and filtering out nonrecurring congestion events results using historical weather and crash data. BTI versus V/C lookup tables were established from these regressions and used to assign BTI values to model roadway links based on model V/C ratios.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  21-8592
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/61513/dot_61513_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.46 MB]
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:915d4d3c6ac805cef0869b6155daaed0eae0c86c3e009e96862d8e64933295e1