A Forecast of State Motor Fuel Revenues: The Effect of New Technologies and the State Vehicle Fleet Mix on Georgia Motor Fuel Receipts

Details

• Creators:
  Wheeler, Laura ; Omar, Meera ; Prates, Jonatas Teixeira
• Corporate Creators:
  Georgia State University Research Foundation, Inc. ; Georgia State University
• Corporate Contributors:
  Georgia. Department of Transportation. Office of Performance-Based Management & Research ; United States. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  AFVs Alternative Transportation Funding Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) Economic Forecasting Electric Vehicles Financing Motor Fuel Revenues Motor Fuels Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) Revenues Vehicle Fleets Vehicle Mix

  More +
• Publication/ Report Number:
  FHWA-GA-22-2021
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States ; Georgia
• Edition:
  Final Report (September 2020–March 2022)
• Corporate Publisher:
  Georgia. Department of Transportation. Office of Performance-Based Management & Research
• Abstract:
  This research focuses on the impact of greater rates of adoption of higher fuel-economy vehicles and electric vehicles (EVs) on anticipated motor fuel receipts from 2022 through 2050. We find that motor fuel consumption has increased in Georgia over the 2000–2019 period, but it has fallen on a per capita basis. Also, during this time, the trend in EV adoption is increasing. Motor fuel receipts are increasing but only due to the indexing of the state motor fuel rate. Close examination of motor fuel consumption in the state reveals that increases in the miles per gallon (MPG) of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are currently having a greater negative effect on motor fuel consumption than the adoption of electric vehicles. Two forecasts are produced for this research. The first is an econometric forecast based on historical data of motor fuel consumption and important determinants of motor fuel consumption. The second model is more conservative and is constructed from the detailed tables available from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The optimistic forecast model projects a slightly increasing trend in motor fuel consumption of 0.3 percent annually over the 2022–2050 period for Georgia. Under this forecast, motor fuel receipts are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent over the forecast window of 2022-2050. The conservative forecast projects a slightly declining average annual growth rate of motor fuel consumption of −0.1 percent. Receipts under this forecast are expected to increase 0.2 percent on average annually over the 2022-2050 period.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  PI# 0017439
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:02ef2d8b781bf65986f871dba4c3944417eb5fea9ca2ba5d0e2c34dd44e26bf6
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/61000/dot_61000_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.21 MB ]