United States Department of Transportation
i
Bridge and Culvert Deterioration Models Using National Bridge Inventory Data
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2021-12-01
[PDF-8.76 MB]
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Alternative Title:Developing Deterioration Rates of Texas Bridges Using NBI Data [Project Title]
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Edition:September 2018 – August 2020
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Abstract:This project developed and tested 44 bridge and 12 culvert deterioration models. Out of these, 38 bridge and 8 culvert models were validated and implemented into 9 Excel workbooks, where forecasts can be updated with new inspections. The 3 National Bridge Inventory (NBI)/PonTex bridge ratings: deck, superstructure and substructure (respectively Items 58, 59 and 60), and the culvert rating (Item 62) were modeled. The models were developed by age groups and by families such as span type, rainfall, or factors such as bridges over water or dry land. Each model is a 2-year Markov transition probability matrix for each age group or family. Matrices contain probabilities that each rating will transition to equal or all possible lesser ratings. The transition probabilities were calculated by counting all actual transitions in a million-record database containing 19 years of NBI/PonTex data. Models were validated and standard errors were calculated. The Markov process extends the 2-year inspection cycle to any desired forecast horizon. Updatable results implemented in Product 2 Excel Workbooks include: 18-year rating and network deterioration tables and curves, and comparisons between the current network condition and the 10-year forecasts. The workbooks with culvert models also include updatable cost forecasts to maintain the culvert network above the rating of 4. Bridge costs are documented in this report. An important finding of this project: contrary to available literature on Markov bridge models, the probabilities of bridge and culvert ratings decreasing by more than 1 in a 2-year inspection cycle were considerably greater than zero in all models.
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