United States Department of Transportation
i
Future Projections of Precipitation for Alaska Infrastructure
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2021-04-01
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[PDF-2.45 MB]
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Abstract:The goals of this project were to use the best available climate change models and data to create more accurate projections of the severity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, and to present these projections in useful, accessible, site-specific formats for hydrologic and engineering applications. Ultimately, the goal was to provide crucial information to assist in safe, efficient, cost-effective engineering solutions. The project used the best available modeled climate data and associated methodologies to calculate and provide downscaled, bias corrected projections of future liquid precipitation from now until 2100 in formats and appropriate summary intervals for the Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (DOT&PF) direct use in planning and design efforts and associated calculations. To facilitate direct integration into the DOT&PF’s operations, the projected precipitation data products closely follow the format of the NOAA ATLAS 14 precipitation frequency estimates, providing outputs across the entire state of Alaska for a range of precipitations durations and probability-based return intervals. Data outputs show substantial increases in projected precipitation across regions, durations, return intervals, and future time periods. These changes have important ramifications for engineering and hydrological design in Alaska, now and in coming decades.
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