United States Department of Transportation
i
Uncertainty in Travel Forecasting: Exploratory Modeling and Analysis TMIP-EMAT: A Desk Reference
-
2021-07-01
-
[PDF-5.39 MB]
Details:
-
Creators:
-
Corporate Creators:
-
Contributors:
-
Corporate Contributors:
-
Subject/TRT Terms:
-
Publication/ Report Number:
-
Resource Type:
-
Geographical Coverage:
-
Contracting Officer:
-
Corporate Publisher:
-
Abstract:Traditionally, travel forecasting models have been used to provide single point predictions. That is, a single future scenario is developed, and the model is applied to that scenario. This approach, however, ignores the deep uncertainty that exists in future land use, demographic, and transportation systems inputs, not to mention the uncertainty that exists in the model itself. More importantly, transportation policy decisions made on the basis of such model outputs may be misguided and ineffective. This report demonstrates and motivates the use of travel forecasting models in an exploratory manner that accounts for the inherent uncertainties of the future. Specifically, this report describes the approach that can be supported by a new planning and modeling tool: the Travel Model Improvement Program Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Tool (TMIP-EMAT) that has been developed to facilitate the use of exploratory techniques with travel forecasting models.
-
Format:
-
Funding:
-
Collection(s):
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
