Enhanced Assessment of Projected Landslide Activity Under Precipitation and Seismicity
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2021-07-01
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:Regional assessments of potential landsliding are useful means of mitigating loss of life, property, and infrastructure, especially when exacerbated by rainfall and seismic events. Susceptibility maps are useful tools for characterizing hazard and risk tied to potential landslides. The method presented herein enables characterization of the area, volume, and distribution of discrete landslide shapes, informing enhanced susceptibility analyses. The method also enables consideration of destabilizing forces from seismic and rainfall events. A new age-roughness curve for the Pacific Northwest constrains physical drivers linked to individual landslides from a landslide inventory, enabling more refined consideration of landslide driving forces during 3D forensic analyses. This further enhances susceptibility analyses by providing refined distributions of soil shear strength. The methodologies herein are validated by comparing rainfall-induced susceptibility to known landslides from a landslide inventory and by comparing empirical relationships between area and volume, developed using the proposed methodology, to empirical relationships found in literature. Finally, susceptibility maps are used to produce hazard maps, linking susceptibility and the probability of driving events, and a suite of coarse risk metrics. These risk metrics include maps and profiles showing closure times, repair costs, commodity losses, and rerouting costs associated with ODOT right-of-way (ROW). The analyses herein also provide useful tools for resilience planning.
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