Transit forecasting accuracy : ridership forecasts and  capital cost estimates, final research report.

George Mason University. Transportation and Economic Development Center

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Transit forecasting accuracy : ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates, final research report.

2009-01-01
By George Mason University. Transportation and Economic Development Center

[PDF-140.28 KB]

English

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Corporate Creators:

George Mason University. Transportation and Economic Development Center
Corporate Contributors:

United States. Department of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology Administration
Subject/TRT Terms:

[+]

Local Transit Local Transit Ridership Public Transit Ridership Transit Riders
Resource Type:

Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:

United States
Edition:

Final research report; 2009
Corporate Publisher:

George Mason University. Transportation and Economic Development Center
Abstract:

In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability of transit planners to properly plan large-scale transit systems. Since then, evidence has arisen to suggest that ridership forecasting and capital cost estimation of both new transit systems and extensions to existing transit system has improved. However, no statistical analysis has been conducted of US transit systems to determine this. This research fills this gap in the literature by examining 47 fixed-guideway transit projects planned in the US between 1972 and 2005 to see whether or not a Pickrell Effect can be observed whereby ridership forecasting and capital cost estimations improved due to Pickrell’s work.
Format:

PDF
Collection(s):

University Transportation Centers US Transportation Collection
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:ec2b2015067fbf6e9e97f5d04bdf2dcf906728d9edf5cb82f10374cd1c5c69fa
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/5672/dot_5672_DS1.pdf
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Transit forecasting accuracy : ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates, final research report.

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