Transit forecasting accuracy : ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates, final research report.

Details

• Corporate Creators:
  George Mason University. Transportation and Economic Development Center
• Corporate Contributors:
  United States. Department of Transportation. Research and Innovative Technology Administration
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Ridership
  • Public transit
  • Transit riders
  • Local transit Ridership
  • Local transit
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Final research report; 2009
• Corporate Publisher:
  George Mason University. Transportation and Economic Development Center
• Abstract:
  In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability of transit planners to properly plan large-scale transit systems. Since then, evidence has arisen to suggest that ridership forecasting and capital cost estimation of both new transit systems and extensions to existing transit system has improved. However, no statistical analysis has been conducted of US transit systems to determine this. This research fills this gap in the literature by examining 47 fixed-guideway transit projects planned in the US between 1972 and 2005 to see whether or not a Pickrell Effect can be observed whereby ridership forecasting and capital cost estimations improved due to Pickrell’s work.
• Format:
  PDF
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/5672/dot_5672_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 140.28 KB]
• Collection(s):
  University Transportation Centers ; US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:ec2b2015067fbf6e9e97f5d04bdf2dcf906728d9edf5cb82f10374cd1c5c69fa