Details:

Creators:
Woodford, William
Corporate Creators:
United States. Federal Highway Administration
Contributors:
Sun, Sarah
Corporate Contributors:
RSG, Inc.
Subject/TRT Terms:
[+]
Data Analysis Data Collection Investments Traffic Forecasting Traffic Models Travel Forecasting
Publication/ Report Number:
FHWA-HEP-14-019
Resource Type:
Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:
United States
Contracting Officer:
Sun, Sarah
Corporate Publisher:
United States. Federal Highway Administration
Abstract:
Travel forecasts are critical inputs to transportation investment and policy decisions and help to introduce reason-based rigor into the planning process. Unfortunately, current practice in travel forecasting has several deficiencies that often diminish the value of these forecasts. These shortcomings are documented in TRB Special Report 288 and include: (a) Inherent weakness of the models, (b) errors introduced by modeling practice, (c) lack or questionable reliability of data, and (d) biases arising from the institutional climate in which models are used. Forecasts and the models that underlie the forecasts can be strengthened by improving the practice of forecasting and by developing modeling tools that are thoroughly tested to confirm that they properly reflect transportation supply and demand. Some of the most important steps include: Improve the practice of travel forecasting; Collect better data; Confirm applicability of input assumptions; Improve the capabilities of existing tools; Confirming model validity. Good forecasts require the judgment of the analyst who assembles the data and uses this information to understand how future travel characteristics will evolve. It also requires careful scrutiny by independent reviewers who examine both the analytical methods and the outcomes to determine the likelihood of the projected results.
Format:
PDF
Funding:
DTFH61-12-D-00013, T-12002
Collection(s):
Federal Highway Administration
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:5da4e8296665f051530cca0c096d1e2be8bb30ced5e55536c67a8930619ac7df
Download URL:
https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/55919/dot_55919_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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