A basic part of travel demand model validation is running the model for a “base year” and comparing the outputs to observed data. Sensitivity testing and temporal validation are also critical components of any model validation effort. In this project, two model versions for each of two metropolitan areas were run twice each: 1) the more recent version for its base year and a backcast scenario (for the base year of the earlier model version), and 2) the earlier version for its base year and a forecast scenario (for the base year of the later model version). Some lessons from the comparison of the model results were presented, demonstrating the difficulty that models can have in forecasting and reinforcing the need for accuracy checking in model input data.
Travel demand models are important tools used in transportation planning to forecast the amount of travel expected to occur under various scenarios an...
Traditionally, travel forecasting models have been used to provide single point predictions. That is, a single future scenario is developed, and the m...
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