United States Department of Transportation
i
Analysis of Automobile Travel Demand Elasticities With Respect To Travel Cost
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2012-08-30
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[PDF-802.02 KB]
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Abstract:This report summarizes the auto travel demand elasticities with respect to different cost variables. The dependent variable of interest is vehicle miles of travel (VMT) of personally owned vehicles by U.S. households. Trip frequency, in terms of the number of trips made per day, is also considered as a dependent variable, though it requires a conversion (i.e., a trip length assumption) to put trip frequency into VMT terms. A relationship between household-level VMT and a set of explanatory variables is established using the direct demand approach. In particular, a log-log regression model is formulated and calibrated using the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) dataset, supplemented with the national transit database and other data sources. Household-level travel demand elasticities with regards to fuel cost, maintenance cost, transit services, income and other socioeconomic characteristics are derived from the VMT regression model. A Poisson regression model is used to describe the relationship between trip frequency and various travel cost variables. In addition, to examine the effect of travel time and cost on the mode choice between flying and driving a personal vehicle, the long distance passenger travel mode choice is represented by a discrete choice model. Using a subset of 2001 NHTS long trip samples, a binary logit choice model is developed and calibrated, which includes access distance, travel time, cost, income, and travel party size as explanatory variables. Aggregate elasticities of long distance trips by personal vehicles are derived from the discrete choice model.
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