Building Feedback into Modelling Impacts of Automated Vehicles: Developing a Consensus Model and Quantitative Tool

Details

• Creators:
  Rakoff, Hannah ; Smith, Scott ; Innamaa, Satu ; Barnard, Yvonne ; Harrison, Gillian ; Shaw, Jingsi
• Corporate Creators:
  John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.) ; VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland LTD ; University of Leeds. Institute for Transport Studies
• Corporate Contributors:
  United States. Department of Transportation. Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Intelligent vehicles
  • Impact studies
  • Forecasting system dynamics
  • automated vehicles
  • impact assessment
  • scenario planning
  • causal loop structures
  • feedback
• Publication/ Report Number:
  DOT-VNTSC-FHWA-20-10
• Resource Type:
  Research Paper
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States;Finland;United Kingdom
• Edition:
  Conference paper; Apr- Oct 2019
• Contracting Officer:
  Kevin Dopart
• Corporate Publisher:
  John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
• Abstract:
  System dynamics offers a rigorous approach to modelling the sometimes-surprising dynamics endogenous in complex systems and is ideal for gaining insight into potential impacts of automation in transport. Researchers from Europe and the U.S. are developing a consensus model, starting from an impact assessment framework presented at TRA 2018 and published shortly thereafter. This paper reports on a 2019 group model building workshop, which collated the intelligence of a diverse international group of modelling, transport and liveability/equity experts, focusing on socioeconomic impacts of highly automated vehicles, from household and public authority standpoints. Subsequent work developed a general framework from which detailed system dynamics models can be created for specific research questions. The ultimate goal is to develop a quantitative tool that can help planners and policy-makers understand how highly automated vehicles may fit within the transport system, and to begin to explore consequences of potential actions under various scenarios.
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  51HW9EA400;51HW9EA500;DTFH61-17-V-00010;693JJ318N3000035
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/48969/dot_48969_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 408.84 KB]
• Collection(s):
  Volpe Center
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:0889caa90d1b570b5480f362e0493afa5037596882652e2097b636981f011e98c822e5a36e83af8a90f03ae2c74c67554a5d54078f6aa4a7631a38d12fb14fba